The Eclipse of Reason

It is required that all political blogs post at least one entry every two weeks on the 2008 Presidential Race. I am simply fulfilling my requirements.

Ok My Turn. Now this list is my opinion of who has the best shot at the nomination; amongst those who have expressed interest.

1. Hillary is obviously at the head of the class until someone catches fire.

2. Mark Warner has been campaigning for months. He’s been all over the country (he’s in St Louis with Claire McCaskill this weekend), he’s young, he’s smart and he was a ridiculously popular Governor. One thing that Mark Warner has on his side that many people don’t realize is that he’s a techie. (He made his money because he had the notion that cell phones might be popular in Virginia.). Warner was recently at the SXSW interactive festival looking for new technology to help his campaign. Dean and Clark had Meet-Up; and Warner might have what’s next.

3. John Edwards has more negatives than positives; his biggest liability (in 2004 as well as currently) is his lack of real experience. But he is making waves online and his popularity is growing at a steady rate. His Southern charm might pay off and his anti-poverty crusade is something that people can definitely get behind.

4. Bill Richardson is not well known, but he is positioned to make a big run very soon. He’s a popular Governor in a purple state, he’s really smart, he has great experience in both domestic and international affairs, and he will be tough to beat if he can mobilize Latino voters.

5. John Kerry thinks everyone loves him and wants him to run again. This is obviously not true, and he will realize it eventually. The thing is that he has the campaign experience, the staff, the infrastructure, and the donor lists; it’s going to lead to a great primary campaign, that won’t get off the ground.

6. Russ Feingold is about to receive the 2008 Dean label, and it is both deserved and unfair. Feingold is probably too liberal to get the nomination, but when the time comes he will be able to mobilize the netroots in a way that is going to be bigger than what Dean did. I think he’s going to last deep into the primary season but he’ll be taken down the same way Dean was.

7. Wes Clark was a phenom in 2004 (he was my preferred candidate) and he has become a better speaker and campaigner. But ultimately I don’t think it will be enough.

These are the serious contenders in my mind. Daschle, Vilsach, Biden, etc are going to give it a shot but aren’t going to get anywhere.

The most glaring exception from my list is Al Gore. He has said he is not going to run, but I think he will and once he gives the word he jumps straight to number two. Gore can step in at the last minute and change everything. I’m going to post a lot more about him really soon.

# posted by rsantos @ 3:41 PM